Projected Decline in Primary School-Aged Children in India: EAC-PM Report Insights

Significant Population Decline in Primary School-Aged Children

A recent working paper from the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) reveals a notable forecast regarding the population of children aged 5 to 9 in India. It is anticipated that this demographic will decrease by around 20% from 2011 to 2036.

The report, titled "How India is Transforming Education Capacity under the New Education Policy 2020," was co-authored by Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Chief Economic Advisor at SBI, and economist Shashidharan Sharma. This decline marks the first demographic indication of India's decreasing Total Fertility Rate (TFR).

Analyzing the Population Decline Data

According to estimates from the National Commission on Population, based on the 2011 Census, there were approximately 125.3 million (12.53 crore) children in the 5–9 age group in 2011. This number is projected to decrease to 112.7 million (11.27 crore) by 2026, reflecting a 10% drop from 2011. By 2036, the figure is expected to further decline to 100.2 million (10.02 crore), indicating a nearly 20% reduction compared to 2011. Data from the Office of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner shows that the fertility rate fell from 2.1 in 2019 to 1.9 in 2024.

Shifting Demand for Schools Towards Urban Areas

The report highlights that the national decline in child population does not equate to a uniform decrease in school demand across the country. Notably, there has been a significant shift in student enrollment from rural to urban schools. Between the academic years 2012–13 and 2021–22, rural school enrollment dropped by about 7.8 million, from 187.1 million to 179.3 million. In contrast, urban schools experienced an increase of approximately 9.3 million students, raising their total enrollment to 76.4 million. Consequently, the urban share of total enrollment rose from 26.4% to 29.9%.

State-Level Enrollment Variations

The report also points out significant variations in enrollment data across states. For example, while total enrollment in Uttar Pradesh remained stable, rural enrollment decreased by 1.946 million, counterbalanced by an increase of 1.76 million in urban enrollment. In Bihar, both total enrollment and the number of schools saw an increase, whereas Tamil Nadu experienced a decline in total enrollment despite an increase in school numbers.

Impact on Primary School Numbers

This demographic change is directly affecting the school network in India. Data from UDISE+ indicates that the number of schools in the country decreased from 1.551 million in 2018–19 to 1.467 million by 2025–26, a decline of 5.4%. The most significant drop was observed in primary schools, which fell by 12.6%, from 827,000 to 722,000. Conversely, the number of schools offering education up to class 12 increased by 29.7%, from 130,000 to 169,000. The report clarifies that a reduction in school numbers does not necessarily imply closures; many primary schools have been upgraded or merged with others.

Future Directions with NEP 2020

To tackle the challenges posed by low enrollment in small schools, the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 suggests a 'school complex' or 'cluster' model. This approach allows nearby small schools and *anganwadis* (early childhood care centers) to share resources such as teachers and facilities without closing any school buildings. The authors recommend that decisions regarding school closures in remote or rural areas should not be based solely on national statistics but should consider local needs, distances from children's homes, and the capacity of nearby schools.